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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."