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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.