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Market specialists have voiced significant doubt regarding optimistic claims that American large firms will swiftly invest billions of dollars to rebuild the country's broken energy sector.

Demand for Solid Assurances

Without an solid promise of full reimbursement from the Washington, analysts expect international firms to act with great care.

“It is premature to comment on any potential investments,” a representative commented in response.

The aggressive timeline of less than a year and a half has been boldly proposed. Yet, expert analyses paint a longer timeline.

A More Realistic Timeline

“It is likely going to take 36 months for any significant recovery in production,” noted an energy analyst.

The analysis indicates energy firms would likely spend:

• Year one: Securing new regulatory frameworks.
• Following phase: Beginning overhaul of equipment.
• The third year: Starting to boost output.

This would lead to an increase of around 500,000 barrels per day maybe by late 2028.

Interest vs. Appetite for Risk

Experts make a critical difference between companies' curiosity and their readiness to commit heavily.

“In my view their interest is an eight, on a range of ten. But their willingness is a much lower, because there is no clarity yet.”

Experienced operators in the country echo this view. The expectation is that firms will publicly talk up the opportunity while actually proceeding with deliberate slowness.

The Enormous Cost

The monetary investment would be enormous. University analysis suggest that adding between half a million and a million barrels per day would require in excess of $10 billion in capital spending over two to three years.

Yet, rebuilding output to peak levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a massive $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Outstanding Question of Government Backing

The suggestion of firms being compensated by the federal government has been often mentioned. However, concrete details on this proposal have so far not been announced.

The absence of clarity is the main factor behind the sector's caution. Operators seek protection against nationalization and the possibility that a subsequent president could renege on any agreement.

“You need to be insured against sovereign risk, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela previously.”

Therefore, while political promises runs strong, the practical realities suggest a journey of measured steps for potential large-scale financial commitment in the country's oil sector.